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Mesoscale Discussion 1528
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022

Areas affected...southeastern North Dakota...northeastern South
Dakota...adjacent west central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 202347Z - 210145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...It still appears unlikely that a severe weather watch will
be needed, but further intensification of at least a couple of
ongoing storms with perhaps some increase in number, may occur
across the region through 8-10 PM.  As activity spreads toward the
Watertown, SD and Alexandria, MN areas, they may pose a risk for
severe hail and locally strong surface gusts.

DISCUSSION...Intensification of convection has probably been slowed
by mid-level subsidence, and generally confined to a couple of cells
within a narrow corridor to the northwest of Gwinner, ND the past
couple of hours.  This may coincide with a zone of differential
lower/mid tropospheric thermal advection, in the wake of one
vigorous short wave trough turning eastward across the upper Great
Lakes region and downstream of another digging across southern
Saskatchewan/Manitoba.  This also appears near the exit region of
75-80+ kt jet streak around 300 mb, along which deep-layer shear is
strong and potentially supportive of supercells.

While it is possible that warm layers aloft continue to inhibit deep
convection, various model output has been suggestive that ongoing
storms may undergo a period of substantive intensification and
perhaps some increase in coverage by 00-02Z.  If this occurs, it
will probably do so in an environment characterized by steep
low-level lapse rates and mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg,
which may remain conducive to severe hail and wind into late
evening.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 07/20/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   46679866 46539697 45879577 45109633 45299796 46149908
            46679866