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Mesoscale Discussion 1931
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Areas affected...northwest Arizona to north-central Utah

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 171752Z - 171945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts are possible with high-based storms this
afternoon and evening from northwest Arizona to north-central Utah.

DISCUSSION...Numerous elevated thunderstorms developed earlier this
morning on the leading edge of a northward surge of monsoon
moisture. In the wake of this convection, clear skies have allowed
for sufficient surface heating which, when co*bined with the
increasing low-level moisture, has resulted in moderate
destabilization. SPC mesoanalysis suggests inhibition has mostly
eroded. Therefore, surface-based storms, with likely a greater
severe wind threat, are possible within the next 1 to 2 hours as
further warming/moistening occurs. An environment this afternoon
featuring high-based storms and a deeply-mixed boundary layer with
1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 25-30 knots of effective shear should
support some threat for severe wind gusts. With multiple rounds of
storms possible, a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed to
address this threat.

..Bentley/Hart.. 08/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

LAT...LON   36591423 38751377 39551345 40181302 40531196 40271123
            38711119 37291165 36821196 35861252 35711307 36181375
            36591423