SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
[html]SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0432 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024
Valid 181200Z - 241200Z
...Synopsis...
An extended period of elevated fire weather concerns is expected
across portions of the Great Basin through D6/Wednesday. During this
time a highly amplified omega blocking pattern will remain in place,
with an upper-level ridge over the central CONUS, and troughs over
the East and West Coasts. Persistent hot and dry conditions under,
and on the fringes of, the aforementioned ridge will continue to
result in poor fuel recovery. This will especially be true across
the Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, and portions of the
Southern Plains.
...D3/Sunday-D6 Wednesday...
A mid-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific trough, will
lift northward across WA and into British Columbia D3/Sunday.
Although the mid-level flow is expected to weaken south of it over
the Great Basin, a well mixed boundary layer will still allow for
momentum transfer of some stronger flow aloft to translate to the
surface from the northwestern, to central, and southern Great Basin.
In particular, the highest sustained wind speeds are expected across
south-central NV D3/Sunday where an enhanced pressure gradient will
reside. Morning moisture recovery will also remain poor across this
region. Similar weather conditions are anticipated for D4/Monday
across south-central NV, with even poorer RH recovery in the
morning. Widespread elevated surface wind speeds should decrease
slightly across most of the Great Basin early next week as SSW
mid-level speeds do the same. However, persistent terrain driven
wind speeds, in conjunction with well mixed boundary layers, will
continue to support small areas of 40% risk probabilities through at
least D6/Wednesday across portions of the Great Basin.
..Barnes.. 08/16/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Source: SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/)