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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO
EARLY TONIGHT FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible for central/southern
Kansas into northern Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas.  Very
large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe gusts up to 75
mph are the expected hazards with the stronger thunderstorms.

...KS into OK/AR/MO through tonight...
A cluster of storms has persisted into the afternoon with most of
the activity on the cool side of a frontal zone. However, a leading
supercell has maintained its intensity into southern Kansas were
temperatures are in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s with
SPC mesoanalysis indicating MLCINH has mostly eroded. Therefore,
additional intensification of this storm and additional development
on the trailing outflow to its west is possible. For additional
information, see MCD #1921.

...TN/OH Valley this afternoon/evening...
Thunderstorms are ongoing within a broad region of moderate to
strong instability and weak shear from Arkansas to Tennessee and
southern Kentucky. Given the instability, isolated damaging wind
gusts are possible, but the lack of shear and better storm
organization should preclude any organized severe-weather threat.

...WI to Lower MI this afternoon into early tonight...
Thunderstorms have started to develop across eastern Wisconsin
within a pocket of greater instability west of Lake Michigan. See
MCD #1920 for more discussion of the threat across this region.

..Bentley.. 08/16/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/

...KS into OK through tonight...
Elevated thunderstorms have formed/strengthened since 14-15z from
west central into southwest KS in a zone of low-midlevel warm
advection downstream from an embedded speed max aloft.  There is
still some uncertainty regarding the longevity of these morning
storms.  However, if the ongoing storms persist into early-mid
afternoon when surface temperatures warm into the 90s F, convective
inhibition will diminish and the storms will beco*e fully rooted at
the surface.  Given the conditionally favorable thermodynamic
(MLCAPE >2000 J/kg) and vertical shear (effective bulk shear in
excess of 40 kt) environment expected across southern KS/northern OK
by this afternoon, will maintain the SLGT risk for large hail up to
2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts up to 75 mph. 

...TN/OH Valleys this afternoon/evening...
A closed midlevel low will move generally eastward over WI/MI
through Saturday morning, as embedded perturbations rotate around
the southern periphery of the low.  Elevated convection has been
slowly weakening through the morning across KY/southern OH, with
other storms located farther southwest into western TN.  This
convection farther south will have more direct access to the
moist/unstable warm sector, and there will be some potential for an
increase in both storm coverage and intensity this afternoon from
middle/eastern TN into northern AL/northwest GA.  Occasional
downbursts with wind damage will be the main concern with multicell
clusters, given the relatively weak deep-layer flow/shear.

...WI to Lower MI this afternoon into early tonight...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across WI this
afternoon and spread eastward into early tonight, along and ahead of
a surface cold front, and in advance of the midlevel closed low. 
Moisture/buoyancy will be sufficient for strong storms capable of
producing isolated large hail near 1 inch and isolated wind damage,
but modest vertical shear suggests primarily multicell storms.