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Mesoscale Discussion 1920
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Areas affected...central and southern Wisconsin into parts of
eastern Iowa and northern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 161853Z - 162130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity likely will continue to increase in
coverage while also slowly intensifying across central into
southwestern Wisconsin, and perhaps adjacent portions of eastern
Iowa and northern Illinois, through 3-5 PM CDT.  Some small to
marginally severe hail is possible, before activity gradually
organizes and poses a risk for strong to severe gusts while
approaching southern Lake Michigan into early evening.

DISCUSSION...c*nvection has recently been intensifying over central
Wisconsin, near Wisconsin Rapids.  This is beneath the modest
mid-level cold core of a broad mid/upper low slowly shifting into
the upper Great Lakes region, and in advance of an associated
intrusion of cooler/drier air which has overspread much of Minnesota
and northwestern Wisconsin.  Wind fields and shear near the ongoing
convection are rather weak, but low-level lapse rates have beco*e
relatively steep with daytime heating, and easterly low-level inflow
into convection appears characterized by CAPE up to 2000 J/kg.  

To the west and southwest of this convection, a digging mid-level
cyclonic vorticity center and associated speed maximum may
contribute to forcing for gradually increasing new thunderstorm
development across southwestern into south central Wisconsin and
adjacent portions of Iowa/northern Illinois through 20-22Z.  As this
occurs, in closer proximity to the jet streak, strengthening of flow
in the 700-500 mb layer (to 30-40 kt) may be sufficient to support
organizing convection.  This may gradually be acco*panied by a
strengthening surface cold pool with by strong to locally severe
gusts while advancing toward southern Lake Michigan into this
evening.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON   42479086 43409025 44158951 43638787 42298835 42018952
            42049073 42479086