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Mesoscale Discussion 1919
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1036 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Areas affected...parts of central/southern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 161536Z - 161730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...It remains unclear how much longer ongoing scattered
severe hail producing storms will persist.  But trends are being
monitored, and it is possible that a severe weather watch may beco*e
necessary.

DISCUSSION...Elevated moisture return within forcing for ascent
associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection has been
sufficently to overco*e mid-level inhibition and support the
initiation of scattered vigorous thunderstorm development.  CAPE for
lifted parcels, in the presence of steep lapse rates, may be in
excess of 2000 J/kg.  More certain, shear beneath 30-40+
west-northwesterly mid/upper flow is strong and more than sufficient
for supercells capable of producing severe hail.

Based on model output, it remains unclear how much longer this will
continue.  However, through early afternoon, the forcing for ascent
is forecast to generally continue spreading east-southeastward
through south central Kansas near/north of Medicine Lodge and
Wichita, where a warmer and more moist boundary-layer may
destabilize sufficiently to support notable further intensification.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   38609999 38679887 38549776 37929693 37279783 37739997
            38609999