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SPC MD 1523

SPC MD 1523

[html]MD 1523 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST CO INTO NORTHEAST NM
       
MD 1523 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1523
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022

Areas affected...southeast CO into northeast NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 201850Z - 202015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible with
thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have begun to develop along the higher
terrain in the vicinity of Raton Mesa northward along I-25 across
southeast CO. Modest instability (500 J/kg or less) and weak
effective shear (20-25 kt) will limit overall storm organization and
longevity of more intense updrafts. However, steep low-level lapse
rates and DCAPE values greater than 1000 J/kg, along with a rather
dry sub-cloud layer will promote strong downdrafts. Sporadic
downbursts producing strong outflows with isolated severe gusts will
be possible as convection develops east/southeast across the High
Plains into early evening. A lack of better organized convection and
the isolated nature of the threat will preclude a severe
thunderstorm watch at this time.

..Leitman/Hart.. 07/20/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   39070481 39180435 39120377 38960316 37940253 37510248
            36580283 36080310 35280360 34980471 34990534 35220565
            35610572 36110534 36380517 37860515 38810497 39070481


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Source: SPC MD 1523 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1523.html)