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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Damaging thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are
possible into this evening across the Ohio Valley and vicinity.

...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update is to clear severe probabilities
from lower Michigan, in the wake of a band of convection now headed
into Ontario. Also, the Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly
across southeast MO, where recent cumulus development has been noted
within a very unstable environment. Otherwise, no major changes have
been made to the outlook. See the previous discussion below for more
information.

..Dean.. 07/20/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022/

...Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley...
Morning water vapor imagery shows an upper low over Upper MI.  The
associated surface cold front extends across Lake Superior into
IL/MO.  This front will sweep eastward today into parts of eastern
Lower MI and OH this afternoon, where strong heating/destabilization
is occurring.  Dewpoints in the 70s and relatively steep mid-level
lapse rates will yield max afternoon MLCAPE values of around 2000
J/kg.  Warm temperatures around 700mb should limit the number of
storms that form through much of the day, but those storms that
develop/sustain will be in an environment of sufficient westerly
flow aloft for a risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail.

Later this afternoon and early evening, the cold front will sag
southward into KY where a very moist and unstable air mass will
reside.  Dewpoints are currently in the mid/upper 70s, and afternoon
MLCAPE values may exceed 4000 J/kg.  Winds aloft will strengthen
through the afternoon as the upper trough passes to the north. 
Several 12z CAM solutions suggest thunderstorms may develop along
the front over western/central KY and spread eastward toward WV
after dark.  Given this solution, have extended the SLGT risk
westward and maintained the SLGT across the remainder of KY/WV. 
Damaging winds should be the main threat.

...AL/GA/Carolinas...
Visible imagery and surface obs show a region of significant
low-level moisture in place from eastern TN into parts of GA/SC/NC. 
Dewpoints in the 70s and the potential for strong afternoon heating
should result in scattered thunderstorms.  Winds aloft are
relatively weak, so the main threat would be water-loaded downdrafts
with locally damaging wind gusts.