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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
EASTERN U.S. AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly Saturday
afternoon and evening, from the Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep
South, and separately across a portion of the Pacific Northwest.

...Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South...
Much of the broad level 1-MRGL risk area has remain unchanged, with
a minor expansion across parts of the Mid-South. 

A slow-moving mid/upper trough should continue east across the
Great Lakes vicinity through early Sunday. An occluded surface
cyclone over Lower MI should drift into southern ON. A weak cold
front will arc to the south over the Upper OH Valley and trail
southwest to west across the Mid-South to the KS-OK border area.
Along this baroclinic zone, ongoing convection at 12Z Saturday
appears most probable over the Ozarks to Mid-South vicinity. It is
plausible this activity may intensify, perhaps aided by an attendant
MCV generated on D2, as downstream diurnal destabilization occurs in
parts of the Mid to Deep South. This region will lie in the gradient
of mid-level flow enhancement (outside of any MCV influence) that
would aid in semi-organized multicell clustering, with a threat for
sporadic damaging winds.

Farther north and east, deep-layer flow should be nearly
unidirectional with moderate 700-500 mb westerlies. This will foster
potential for multiple multicell clusters over a relatively broad
warm sector across the OH Valley to the Lower Great Lakes and the
Appalachians. Mid-level lapse rates will be weaker with eastern
extent, and overall MLCAPE values should tend to be moderate from
1000-2500 J/kg. At least localized damaging winds will be possible
across a broad swath of the eastern CONUS. Confidence remains too
low at this time in highlighting more focused corridors of greater
damaging wind potential.

...Pacific Northwest...
A pronounced shortwave impulse, embedded within a broader mid/upper
trough, should approach the northern CA and OR coast on Saturday. A
strengthening mid to upper jetlet should beco*e centered across
northern CA and the Sierra NV Range. Within the exit region of this
meridional flow regime, scattered late-afternoon and evening
thunderstorms should be focused from south to north across the
Cascade Range. While buoyancy should remain weak, steepening mid to
low-level lapse rates will support a threat for a few organized
high-based cells/clusters. Isolated severe wind gusts should be the
main hazard.

..Grams.. 08/15/2024