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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH KS AND
NORTH OK...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
central and eastern states on Friday, with localized damaging winds
as the primary hazard. A relatively greater concentration of large
hail and severe gusts may occur across parts of south Kansas into
north Oklahoma on Friday afternoon into the evening.

...Western KS to the Ozarks...
At least isolated elevated thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z
Friday over a part of the central High Plains. This activity may
persist and intensify during the day as increasingly pronounced 
differential heating occurs along an east-southeast oriented
baroclinic zone across central/south KS to the Ozarks. Hot
temperatures will exist to the south in north OK and the TX
Panhandle where full insolation occurs. With moderate to strong
effective bulk shear within a west-northwesterly mid to upper flow
regime, potential will exist for a few supercells from both elevated
convection early to surface-based storms during the afternoon to
early evening. With the lack of an appreciable mid/upper-level
shortwave impulse and relatively modest low-level warm theta-e
advection initially, confidence is below average in terms of diurnal
convective evolution as well as the spatial placement for the
mesoscale corridor of greater threat. Environmentally though, the
setup will favor potential for isolated to scattered large hail to
around tennis-ball size and severe gusts to 70 mph. The more robust
storms should peak around late afternoon to early evening.

...Great Lakes into the OH/TN Valleys and Mid-South...
A mid/upper-level trough will move slowly east across parts of the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes regions. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow
(around 40-50 kts at 500 mb) should be present on Friday afternoon
across the Lower MO to the OH Valleys. An attendant surface cyclone
over WI should drift into Lower MI with a weak cold front extending
southwestward across the Mid-MS Valley.

Decaying but still extensive convection should be ongoing at 12Z
Friday morning across parts of the Mid-South/Lower OH Valley, with
more isolated storms possible north into Lower MI. The southern
portion of this morning activity may diurnally intensify as the
remnant cold pool/outflow shifts southeast into the TN Valley. With
decreasing shear to the south and poor mid-level lapse rates, the
primary threat should be from sporadic strong gusts producing
localized tree damage.

Scattered to broken coverage of afternoon thunderstorms is most
likely across parts of the southern Great Lakes vicinity from south
WI to north OH. Occasional strong to localized severe gusts will be
the main threat, especially as multicell clustering occurs later in
the afternoon. The threat across the Lower Great Lakes/Upper OH
Valley should diminish with eastern extent as convection spreads
away from the buoyancy plume. Marginally severe hail will be
possible with convection closer to the shortwave trough amid
slightly cooler mid-level temperatures.

Overall convective potential across the Lower OH/Mid-MS Valleys may
be diurnally subdued in the wake of overnight/early morning
convection and stronger forcing for ascent remaining to the north. 
Conditionally, the environment would favor organized storms within
the enhanced mid-level jet.

...Northern/central High Plains...
Despite low-amplitude, mid-level ridging, an enhanced belt of
westerlies could favor transient supercell structures with isolated
high-based thunderstorms that develop during the late afternoon.
Steepened low to mid-level lapse rates will favor a threat for
localized large hail and severe gusts.

..Grams.. 08/15/2024