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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...APPALACHIANS...AND
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across
parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and
Southeast.

...Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Southeast...

A slow-moving upper trough/low should continue eastward across the
Great Lakes and OH Valley vicinity on Saturday. A weak surface low
initially over Lower MI is forecast to gradually develop into
southern Ontario through the period. A weak front extending
southward from this low should make gradual east-southeastward
progress across much of the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic into the
Southeast through Saturday evening. This boundary, although
ill-defined and having only modest low-level convergence, should
still serve as a focus for strong to severe convection across parts
of these regions.

Diurnal heating of a moist airmass along/ahead of the front should
foster weak to moderate destabilization by Saturday afternoon, even
though mid-level lapse rates should remain modest. Enhanced
mid-level flow associated with the upper trough/low should focus
over parts of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Mid-South.
But, sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft
organization should be present over much of the broad warm sector.
Multiple clusters may develop along the length of the front Saturday
afternoon and pose primarily an isolated strong to damaging wind
threat as they spread east-southeastward through Saturday evening.
Similar to Day 2/Friday, confidence in a more focused corridor of
damaging wind potential remains too low to include greater wind
probabilities at this time.

..Gleason.. 08/15/2024