Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

Fire weather concerns are expected to primarily reside across
portions of the Great Basin this weekend, perhaps persisting into
next week. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show low
probabilities for wetting rainfall across much of CA, NV, and
central TX through the forecast period. This will be driven by a
gradually amplifying upper-level regime with upper ridging over the
south-central CONUS and the establishment of a robust trough along
the West Coast. Fuels across both regions should continue to dry and
will support fire weather concerns if/when winds can approach
critical thresholds. 

...D4/Sat to D5/Sun - Nevada...
A mid-level impulse embedded within the mean upper trough is
forecast to pivot across northern CA into the northern Great Basin
through D4/Saturday. Strong mid-level flow associated with this
feature will overspread the central to northern Sierra Nevada,
resulting in strengthening downslope winds with somewhat widespread
dry/breezy conditions across western and central NV. Afternoon
relative humidity values in the teens should be co*mon with winds
between 15-25 mph. Given antecedent dry fuels, fire weather concerns
are expected, though confidence in the coverage of 20+ mph remains
limited away from the immediate lee side of the Sierras, and
precludes higher risk probabilities. Breezy downslope winds should
persist into D5/Sunday, but may be more limited in scope given
weaker mid-level winds co*pared to Saturday. Overall, a
west/southwesterly mid/upper-level flow regime should persist into
early next week and may continue to support periods of elevated fire
weather conditions across NV.

...Texas...
Recent fuel and fire reports from north-central TX and southern OK
indicate that grasses and shrubs are undergoing rapid drying amid
increasingly hot temperatures. Forecast highs through the forecast
period are expected to exceed 100 F each day (likely reaching near
105 F for many locations). While areas north of the Red River may
see occasional rain/thunderstorm chances later this week, little to
no precipitation is expected across central to western TX. These
hot/dry conditions will promote further expansion of burnable fuels
and steadily increasing ERCs across the region. The building upper
ridge will modulate the potential for surface winds to exceed
critical threshold, but fire concerns may emerge if winds trend
higher than currently forecast.

..Moore.. 08/14/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...