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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MIDDLE MO
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible
late this afternoon through the evening across portions of the
middle Missouri Valley.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the current Convective Outlook.

Across the Slight Risk region in KS/NE/MS/IA, air mass recovery has
been ongoing in the wake of a morning MCS. Temperatures have warmed
into the upper 70s to mid 80s with mid 70s dew points increasing as 
as a modified outflow boundary drifts slowly northeast. This region
will be the focus for the main severe threat through the afternoon
and evening as a surface low and attendant cold front move eastward
into the region and modified outflow/pseudo warm front lifts
northward. Initial supercell development is expected by late
afternoon/early evening with potential for a tornado or two and
large hail. Clustering of supercells into linear segments later in
the evening will support an increasing risk in damaging wind through
the evening/overnight.

A Marginal Risk continues across the Great Basin into the northern
Rockies as well as across the central/high Plains. Scattered
thunderstorm development in these regions will pose potential for
strong to severe wind and some instances of severe hail.

..Thornton/Thompson.. 08/14/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024/

...MO Valley area this afternoon through tonight...
An MCV over northwest IA will continue eastward today, while
clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from central MO
to northern AR within a low-level warm advection regime.  Warm
advection will slowly weaken through the day, but convective outflow
with the central MO storm cluster may result in those storms
persisting well into the afternoon while spreading southward. 
Otherwise, outflow from the morning convection will slowly modify
from eastern KS into southeast NE, in advance of a midlevel
shortwave trough over the central High Plains, and an associated
surface cold front moving southeastward across northwest KS.  The
cold front and the front/outflow intersection will focus
thunderstorm development late this afternoon/evening from central KS
to southeast NE/southwest IA, and storms will subsequently spread
eastward tonight as one or more storm clusters/MCSs across northern
MO/southern IA.

Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be maintained this
afternoon within the modifying outflow across the SLGT risk area,
where semi-discrete supercells and a couple of tornadoes will be
possible.  Isolated very large hail (2-2.5 inches in diameter) will
also with any persistent supercells, though the severe threat will
transition primarily to damaging winds (60-75 mph) by late evening
into tonight as storms grow upscale.  

Farther northwest, a separate clustering of storms is possible in
central SD, south of the ongoing convection across southern ND. 
Surface heating in cloud breaks and weak ascent downstream from an
ejecting midlevel trough will help focus thunderstorm development by
21-00z.  Low-midlevel vertical shear will not be particularly strong
and flow aloft will be strongly backed, which suggests a fairly
quick growth into a line segment.  Isolated damaging gusts and large
hail will be possible for a few hours late this afternoon/evening.

...WY and vicinity this afternoon...
An embedded vorticity maximum over southeast ID will progress
eastward over WY this afternoon/evening.  There will be sufficient
low-midlevel moisture and surface heating for high-based
thunderstorm development by early afternoon in advance of the
vorticity maximum.  Given steep low-level lapse rates and modest
enhancement to midlevel flow (near 30 kt), strong outflow winds of
50-60 mph will be possible with this convection through the
afternoon.