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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...MID
SOUTH...OZARKS...SOUTHERN KS...NORTHERN OK...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Friday
over portions of the Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys,
and potentially across parts of the Ozarks into the central and
southern Plains.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across
parts of the Great Lakes, Midwest, and Ohio Valley on Friday. A belt
of enhanced mid-level flow should be present from the east-central
Plains to parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley, and related
deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft organization
with thunderstorms that can develop through the period. A weak
surface low should likewise move slowly eastward over the Great
Lakes vicinity. A weak front/wind shift is forecast to extend
south-southwestward from this surface low.

...Great Lakes into the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys...
Extensive convection may be ongoing Friday morning across the Ohio
Valley vicinity. Some intensification of morning storms cannot be
ruled out through the day, though the primary severe threat is
currently expected with storms that will develop in the wake of
early convection during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating
and rich low-level moisture will support pockets of moderate to
locally strong destabilization by late afternoon across parts of the
Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Moderate midlevel flow will
support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, and a
conditionally favorable severe environment may eventually develop
over a broad region near/ahead of the front.

Details of storm initiation and evolution remain unclear, due to the
influence of morning convection and generally weak convergence near
the surface front. However, a few stronger cells/clusters may evolve
during the afternoon and evening, posing a threat of damaging wind
and hail. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed,
once confidence increases in the location of one or more favored
corridors of severe potential within the broader risk area.  

...Ozarks into parts of KS/OK...
The trailing portion of the cold front will likely extend from
southern MO into southern KS/northern OK by late Friday afternoon.
At least isolated storm development will be possible in the vicinity
of the front, with some signal for convection to persist into Friday
night as it moves east-southeastward. Moderate to strong buoyancy
and modestly supportive deep-layer shear could result in a threat of
isolated strong/damaging gusts and hail with the more robust storms
from late Friday afternoon into Friday evening.

..Dean.. 08/14/2024