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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST/CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly damaging
wind gusts appear possible over parts of the Northeast and Southeast
on Thursday.

...Northeast...
A weakening mid/upper-level trough and attendant cold front will
move through parts of the Northeast and New England on Thursday. In
advance of the front, diurnal heating of a relatively moist airmass
will result in moderate destabilization, with MLCAPE rising into the
1500-2000 J/kg range. Initial development may occur as early as late
morning, with an increase in storm coverage and intensity expected
as convection spreads eastward through the afternoon. 

Effective shear in the 30-40 kt range will support the potential for
organized multicell clusters and a few supercells. Damaging wind
gusts are expected to be the most prominent threat, as low-level
lapse rates steepen across the region prior to storm arrival.
Modestly enhanced low-level flow/shear (0-1 km SRH potentially
increasing to 100+ m2/s2) will also support a potential for a
tornado or two with any sustained supercells. Despite relatively
weak midlevel lapse rates, isolated hail will also be possible,
especially with any discrete cells. 

...Southeast into the Carolinas...
Rich low-level moisture and strong diurnal heating will support
moderate-to-strong destabilization across much of the Southeast by
afternoon. The details of storm development and evolution remain
somewhat uncertain, and will depend to some extent on the impact of
prior-day convection, which may persist into the early morning
across some areas. However, multiple storm clusters are likely to
evolve by afternoon. Deep-layer shear will generally remain rather
weak, though slightly enhanced midlevel flow on the fringe of the
mid/upper-level trough passing to the north will influence the
region, and potentially support some modest storm organization. The
primary threat is expected to be damaging wind gusts resulting from
wet microbursts and/or outflow-driven clusters, though the magnitude
of instability may support some isolated hail as well.

..Dean.. 07/20/2022