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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the
Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday.

...Midwest/mid Mississippi Valley into parts of the central/southern
Plains...
Some amplification of a mid/upper-level trough is expected across
the upper Midwest/upper MS Valley on Thursday. Within this trough, a
mid/upper-level cyclone may develop across parts of MN. A surface
low initially over IA/southern MN is forecast to move northeastward,
and potentially beco*e occluded as it beco*es increasingly colocated
with the mid/upper-level low. A cold front attendant to the surface
low will move across parts of the upper Midwest into MO/KS. As this
occurs, a midlevel jet maximum is forecast to move through the base
of the trough from parts of MO/southern IA into IL. 

In the wake of extensive early-morning convection, moderate
low-level southwesterly flow will support airmass recovery and
destabilization Thursday afternoon from parts of the east-central
Plains into IA/MO/IL. Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates atop
rich low-level moisture will support strong to locally extreme
buoyancy, with MLCAPE potentially in the 2500-4000 J/kg range across
the warm sector by peak heating. Meanwhile, increasing midlevel flow
will support effective shear of 40+ kt, resulting in a conditionally
favorable severe-thunderstorm environment. 

The details of convective initiation and evolution remain uncertain,
but isolated to widely scattered storms may develop by late
afternoon along the primary cold front, and potentially near any
remnant outflow boundaries. Supercells with a threat of hail,
localized damaging gusts, and a tornado or two will be possible
initially, with some upscale growth potentially leading to an
increase in damaging-wind potential by Thursday evening, as storms
move into parts of southern MO/IL. 

A few strong to severe storms may also develop within a post-frontal
regime from eastern NE into western IA, where lingering low-level
moisture will support moderate buoyancy, and deep-layer shear will
remain favorable for organized convection during the
afternoon/evening. Large hail and localized damaging gusts would be
the primary threats in this area.

..Dean.. 08/13/2024