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Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the
Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday.

...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern/Central
Plains...
An initially weak upper trough should gradually consolidate and form
into a closed low over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A
corresponding increase in westerly mid-level flow should occur
across parts of the Midwest into the mid MS Valley. At the surface,
a weak low should gradually occlude as it meanders over the Upper
Midwest beneath the developing upper low. Although low-level
convergence along an associated cold front extending southwestward
from the surface low should remain fairly limited, a rather moist
and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the front by
Thursday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and mid MS Valley.
Early day convection should move eastward across these areas and
weaken, with ample daytime heating in its wake. This heating
co*bined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will
contribute to a strongly, and potentially extremely, unstable
airmass. Increasing mid-level flow through the day should support
strengthening deep-layer shear as well, with various NAM/GFS
forecast soundings showing a veering wind profile with height
through mid levels.

This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should
support a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, including the
potential for supercells and associated large hail threat.
Sufficient low-level shear may also exist for a couple of tornadoes.
However, the weak low-level convergence along the front leads to
some uncertainty in overall thunderstorm coverage and placement.
Regardless, a Slight Risk has been included where most guidance
shows a convective QPF signal Thursday afternoon through late
evening. Some chance exists for a bowing cluster to develop eastward
across the Midwest, although confidence in this scenario remains
fairly low. A Marginal Risk extends southwestward along the length
of the weak front/wind shift into parts of the southern/central
Plains. Although coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain more
isolated across these regions, a well-mixed boundary layer could
still support severe wind gusts with any high-based convection that
can develop.

..Gleason.. 08/13/2024