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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging over the southern tier of the CONUS should be
suppressed by a slow moving upper trough/low over the Upper Midwest
and Great Lakes on Day 4/Friday. Moderate to locally strong
instability should once again be in place along/ahead of a weak
front. Sufficient mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should
exist to support at least an isolated severe threat across parts of
the OH Valley/Midwest into the mid MS Valley and southern/central
Plains. However, the presence of prior convection and only weak
low-level convergence along the front lend low confidence in
delineating a corridor of greater severe potential across these
regions Friday afternoon/evening. Have therefore not included a 15%
severe area at this time.

For this weekend into early next week, an upper low should develop
and remain over the eastern Pacific, off the Northwest Coast. Upper
ridging is forecast to build over much of the West and
Rockies/Plains, with upper troughing persisting over the eastern
states. Some severe threat may continue each day across parts of the
Plains into the Southeast and eastern states, along and south/east
of a weak front. But, the overall synoptic pattern suggests limited
predictability in highlighting focused areas of greater severe
potential.