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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of
the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the
northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions
of South Carolina and vicinity.

...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High
Plains...
Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move
through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist
across the West today.  Daytime heating will support modest CAPE
development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and
over the High Plains.  Scattered afternoon storm development is
expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited --
thus limiting overall severe potential.  The most favorable
CAPE/shear co*bination is expected from southwestern Montana
southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. 
Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though
questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection
precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time.  Convection should
weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes.

Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight
hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into
an eastward-moving cluster.  Potential for locally damaging wind
gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark,
spreading  across the High Plains and into Kansas through the
evening and into the overnight hours.

...Central Plains...
As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across
the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is
expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside
over central Kansas.  With moderate CAPE expected atop the
cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms
are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or
exceeding severe levels.  Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be
possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone.

...South Carolina...
Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is
forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie
across South Carolina during the afternoon.  The front should focus
isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move
southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly
flow atop the area.

With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear
for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are
expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster
by late afternoon.  The more vigorous storms will be capable of
strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection
weakens/move offshore.

..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024