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Mesoscale Discussion 1889
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Areas affected...Northeastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 122334Z - 130100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A supercell thunderstorm capable of damaging winds, hail,
and perhaps a tornado is tracking southward across portions of
northeast Colorado. Given the isolated nature of this storm, weather
watch issuance is not likely.

DISCUSSION...The severe weather threat associated with a
southward-moving supercell in northeast Colorado may persist for the
next 1-2 hours. The storm has exhibited signs of prolonged low-level
rotation, has produced 2.00 inch hail, and is moving into an
environment that will continue to support updraft rotation. Forecast
proximity hodographs indicate there is sufficient curvature of the
low-level flow and streamwise vorticity to support continued
low-level mesocyclone development and cycling. Both the curvature
and magnitude of the low-level hodograph is expected to increase as
the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens with the decoupling of the
boundary-layer. However, recent radar trends suggest the storm is
struggling to stay ahead of its own outflow, where temperatures are
15-20 F cooler than unmodified inflow. This supercell will likely
undergo several phases of organized low-level rotation, followed by
surging outflow, until the boundary-layer eventually stabilizes this
evening and convection beco*es more elevated in nature.

..Halbert/Wendt/Edwards.. 08/12/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...

LAT...LON   40790427 40960414 40980387 40870363 40680344 40460333
            40260326 40120319 39920338 39830370 39860389 40000414
            40140421 40330425 40510427 40790427