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Mesoscale Discussion 1886
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern Wyoming into
northeast/north-central Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 121905Z - 122100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for isolated large hail and strong to
locally severe gusts will gradually increase through the afternoon.
The overall severe threat appears too marginal/localized for a
watch.

DISCUSSION...Latest day cloud phase satellite imagery indicates
deepening boundary-layer cumulus along the Front Range and northward
along the higher terrain into southeastern WY. Isolated
thunderstorms have initiated in southeastern WY, where diurnal
heating has eroded inhibition locally. Over the next several hours,
continued heating amid upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints should favor
additional thunderstorm development along the higher terrain, before
spreading eastward into the richer boundary-layer moisture.
Sufficient (albeit weak) surface-based instability and effective
shear increasing to around 30-40 kt could promote a few organized
storms, including the potential for a supercell or two. Severe hail
(generally up to 1.5 inches) and strong to locally severe gusts are
possible with any longer-lived storms. However, current thinking is
that the severe risk will be too localized/marginal for a watch.

..Weinman/Mosier.. 08/12/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41330521 41880499 42050473 42160446 42120411 41690403
            39440430 39220457 39240489 39450515 40190525 41330521