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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1046 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Valid 121700Z - 131200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEVADA...

The primary forecast change for this update is an expansion of the
dry-thunderstorm risk area across portions of the Pacific Northwest
and northern Rockies. Morning soundings from BOI, OTX, and MFR all
show cooler mid-level temperatures co*pared to the previous 24
hours, which should support thunderstorm chances today through
tonight as lift associated with an approaching trough overspreads
the region. GOES imagery also depicts a plume of 0.4 to 0.6 inch
PWAT values across northern CA into central ID that was well sampled
by the BOI sounding, and suggests a slightly better probability for
dry thunderstorms exists through this corridor. A few
lightning-related fire starts associated with a mix of wet/dry
thunderstorms have been reported over the past 24 hours across WA
and ID, and a lack of widespread wetting rainfall has maintained dry
fuels that will support a continued fire weather concern for today
and into the early morning hours Tuesday. 

Other minor adjustments include an expansion of the Elevated risk
area into the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where ensemble
guidance has shown a consistent signal for a few hours of dry
conditions with 15-20 mph winds. See the previous discussion for
additional details.

..Moore.. 08/12/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough within broader cyclonic flow in the Northwest
will move through central California into western Nevada today. A
surface trough in the Northwest/northern Rockies will promote dry
and breezy conditions in parts of the northern Great Basin.

...Great Basin...
Broadly elevated fire weather conditions are expected over much of
Nevada into far southern Idaho. Winds of 15-20 mph will be the most
co*mon along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. A small region of
northwest Nevada may experience briefly critical conditions as both
the terrain and the mid-level jet help to enhance surface winds to
20-25 mph.

...Northwest...
Forcing for ascent from the upper trough will promote isolated
thunderstorms from north-central California into central Idaho. With
the mid-level jet more focused in northern Nevada, storm motions
will not be overly fast. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are most
probable. Recent CAM guidance also differs on the exact degree of
coverage, but enough confidence in at least isolated activity is
present for highlights.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...