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SPC MD 1881

SPC MD 1881

[html]MD 1881 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF UT INTO WESTERN CO
       
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Mesoscale Discussion 1881
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Areas affected...Parts of UT into western CO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 112046Z - 112245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and perhaps some hail are possible
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...c*nvection is gradually increasing across parts of UT
into western CO this afternoon. Strong heating of a relatively moist
environment has resulted in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE
increasing above 500 J/kg in some areas. This region is on the
southern periphery of modest midlevel west-northwesterlies
associated with a shortwave trough moving across the northern
Rockies/High Plains. Effective shear of 20-30 kt could support at
least transient storm organization through the afternoon. While some
hail cannot be ruled out, isolated severe gusts will likely beco*e
the primary threat with time, as outflows grow and intensify within
the well-mixed environment.

..Dean/Hart.. 08/11/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...

LAT...LON   39221384 39911330 40020948 39990747 38890739 37600802
            37460952 37311366 37821377 39221384


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Source: SPC MD 1881 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1881.html)