Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Valid 131200Z - 191200Z

The potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions
remains limited for the upco*ing work week and into next weekend.
The upper-level shortwave trough currently deepening across the
Pacific Northwest is forecast to propagate into the central CONUS by
the start of the forecast period. In its wake, a highly amplified
upper ridge will likely beco*e established over the central
Plains/Rockies with mean troughing along the West Coast. This
synoptic pattern will favor rain/thunderstorm chances for much of
the country with the exception of central TX and much of NV and CA.

...Nevada and California...
Cooling temperatures across NV/CA should modulate fire concerns to
some degree, but the mean trough along the West Coast will favor the
passage of embedded shortwave troughs across the region. Such
features have inherent low predictability at this range, but will
support breezy conditions over a region with dry fuels.
Consequently, localized fire weather concerns are possible later
this week, but confidence remains low for any particular day. 

...Pacific Northwest...
Deterministic models and ensemble guidance continue to show
considerable spread regarding precipitation totals across the
Pacific Northwest for the upco*ing work week. The typically drier
GFS/GEFS solutions hint at the potential for thunderstorms,
including dry thunderstorms, around mid-week, most likely on
D6/Thursday afternoon. Ensembles hint at the potential for wetting
rainfall, so confidence in the dry thunderstorm threat is too low
for highlights, but given recent lightning-related fire starts,
trends will be monitored. 

...Central Texas...
The probability for widespread wetting rainfall appears limited
through the end of the upco*ing work week across central to western
TX as the upper-level ridge begins to build. Likewise, temperatures
are forecast to climb back into the low 100s, which should act to
cure fine fuels. Weak pressure gradient winds under the ridge should
limit fire concerns, but trends in wind speeds and fuels will be
monitored.

..Moore.. 08/11/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...