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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
central High Plains this afternoon into the early evening. Other
storms with strong wind gusts may affect parts of Utah, northern
Arizona, and western Colorado.

Expanded the Marginal and Slight Risk farther north into South
Dakota where severe thunderstorm watch 618 is in effect and severe
storms are ongoing. Otherwise, no changes were necessary.

For more discussion on the watch 618, see MCD 1879 and for
discussion farther south where storms are starting to develop in
northeastern Colorado and vicinity, see MCD 1880. 

A few stronger storms have developed in Upstate New York. However,
given the weak buoyancy, expect any severe threat to remain marginal
and isolated.

..Bentley.. 08/11/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/

...High Plains...
Morning water vapor loops show a shortwave trough and associated
mid-level speed max moving across WY.  This feature and its
associated lift will move into the High Plains this afternoon,
promoting widely scattered thunderstorm development.  Forecast
soundings from southwest SD southward into western NE/KS show steep
mid-level lapse rates, considerable deep layer shear, and pockets of
MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg.  This will be sufficient for supercell
structures capable of large hail and eventually damaging winds
during the late afternoon and evening.

...Great Basin...
Ample mid-level moisture is present today across much of southern
UT, northern AZ, and western CO.  Strong heating should lead to
scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region.  Steep
low/mid level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will
pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cores.