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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREAT
BASIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears
generally low across the contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...
A upper-level trough will advance off the East Coast on Monday while
the upper-level ridge starts to build across the High Plains. A
mid-level shortwave trough off the California coast Monday morning
will approach the Great Basin by the evening and may result in a few
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across Utah. Additionally,
convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough will move across
the Rockies on Monday with a few strong to severe thunderstorms
possible. 

...Central High Plains...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the
higher terrain across the central/southern Rockies on Monday
afternoon and move into the central Plains. Weak to moderate
instability and weak to moderate shear are forecast across the
region which may result in a few isolated strong to severe storms.
These storms will develop in a region of overall rising heights
aloft. However, most guidance indicates a convectively enhanced
mid-level shortwave trough, likely emanating from the convection
near the AZ/Mexico border this morning, will result in mesoscale
ascent across Colorado and aid in storm development. 

...Great Basin...
Moderate instability will develop across the Great Basin on Monday
as monsoon moisture streams north ahead of a mid-level shortwave
trough. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon as
the inhibition erodes. Effective shear is forecast to be relatively
weak (15 to 20 knots) which may limit storm organization. There is
considerable uncertainty with the thermodynamic profile forecast
from the RAP and NAM across western Utah with the NAM showing less
instability and deeper mixing with the RAP showing greater
instability and at less mixed boundary layer (thus resulting in
greater instability). Regardless of the scenario, there will be a
threat for severe wind gusts given the at least moderately unstable
environment with height falls across the region during the
afternoon. 

...Eastern North Carolina...
Storms are forecast to develop along a cold front as it moves across
North Carolina Monday afternoon. A very moist airmass will be in
place with mid-70s dewpoints. Despite a focused mechanism for storms
and moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), expect the threat
for organized severe weather to remain low given the weak effective
shear (~25 knots) and weak mid-level lapse rates (<6 C/km).

..Bentley.. 08/11/2024