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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WYOMING...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal threat for a tornado continues this evening across
portions of New England. A few strong wind gusts will also be
possible across this region, along with parts of the southern High
Plains, and southern Wyoming.

...01z Update...

Remnants of TS Debby are quickly lifting northeast into southern QC
early this evening. While low-level shear remains strong ahead of
the progressive short-wave trough, buoyancy is negligible across
northern New England and very limited across southern portions. Over
the last hour or so, lightning has diminished as cloud tops warm and
convection is weakening. Will maintain a marginal risk for gusty
winds and perhaps a brief, weak tornado this evening. Otherwise,
severe threat appears to be diminishing.

Upstream across the southern High Plains into WY, west-northwesterly
flow is dominant along the northern periphery of the southern US
anticyclone centered over TX. A few weak disturbances are
progressing across the Great Basin before turning southeast toward
the central High Plains. Each of these features appears to be
influencing a couple of corridors of organized convection. The
southern-most corridor extends from southwest KS into northeast NM.
This activity should spread into the TX Panhandle later this evening
and gusty winds could be noted at times.  Even so, lapse rates are
not especially steep at AMA this evening with roughly 300 J/kg
MLCAPE. Warm advection profiles favor this activity persisting deep
into the evening hours.

Scattered convection is also somewhat organized across south-central
WY, immediately ahead of a weak disturbance. RIW sounding exhibited
weak buoyancy, and the air mass east of the Laramie Mountains is
poor with surface temperatures only in the upper 50s. This activity
could generate gusty winds for a few hours, but otherwise remain
mostly below severe levels.

..Darrow.. 08/10/2024