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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern lower
Michigan into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday.  The primary severe risk
will be damaging gusts, though isolated hail and a tornado or two
are also possible.

...Lower MI/OH Valley...

Seasonally strong upper low is progressing east-southeast across
northern MN early this morning. This trough will shift to Lake MI by
18z before advancing into southeast ON by 21/12z. Strong, focused
height falls will spread across the Great Lakes ahead of this
feature, primarily north of the mid-level jet that will translate
across southern WI into lower MI. Latest model guidance suggest the
associated surface front will be roughly coincident with the upper
trough, and this boundary should be the primary focus for
strong/severe thunderstorm development later today as it moves
across lower MI/OH Valley.

Strong surface heating is forecast by late morning across lower
MI/northern IN ahead of the wind shift. This will contribute to
substantial buoyancy (SBCAPE) as convective temperatures are
breached by 19z at APN (1200 J/kg), JXN (3500 J/kg), and GVS (4000
J/kg). Current thinking is isolated supercells should evolve
along/east of this corridor where large-scale forcing for ascent
will be maximized. This activity should advance east toward southern
ON by late afternoon. Additional development will be delayed a few
hours southwestward along the boundary into southern IN/KY; although
this trailing front will likely aid isolated activity even further
southwest with time. Initial discrete supercells should mature into
more co*plex storm modes with potential for line segments, or at
least discontinuous clustering ahead of the short wave. Damaging
winds along with some hail threat can be expected.

...Elsewhere...

A few strong, to potentially severe, thunderstorms will be noted
across the upper Red River Valley region, ahead of the front from
western TN into southern OK/north-central TX, and perhaps along the
east slopes of the southern CO/northern NM mountains. Strong heating
will prove instrumental in each of these regions for potential
robust development. Locally damaging winds will be the primary risk
with isolated convection that develops during the latter part of the
afternoon.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 07/20/2022