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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly damaging
wind gusts appear possible over parts of the Northeast and Southeast
on Thursday.

...Northeast...
An upper trough is forecast to progress eastward across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. A related surface low should
develop northeastward across Quebec through the day, with a trailing
cold front sweeping eastward across much of New England through the
period. A rather moist airmass will likely be present ahead of the
cold front, with surface dewpoints mostly in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Daytime heating of this airmass should aid in the development of
around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE by early Thursday afternoon. 35-50
kt of southwesterly mid-level flow associated with the upper trough
are forecast to be present over the Northeast. 30-40 kt of effective
bulk shear should foster updraft organization, with both multicells
and supercells possible.

Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop by late
Thursday morning or early afternoon along a pre-frontal surface
trough across northern NY into VT/NH. This convection should
strengthen as it encounters a favorable thermodynamic environment.
Any supercells that can be sustained should pose a threat for severe
hail, strong/gusty winds, and perhaps a tornado given forecast
0-1-km SRH of 100-200 m2/s2 associated with a south-southwesterly
low-level jet. Thunderstorms will probably congeal into small bowing
clusters with time Thursday afternoon as they continue moving
eastward from eastern NY into New England. As this process occurs,
damaging winds should beco*e the primary severe threat. Thunderstorm
intensity should decrease towards the Atlantic Coast Thursday
evening as instability should be more limited with eastward extent.

The southern extent of appreciable severe risk and thunderstorm
coverage toward the NYC metro and vicinity remains somewhat
uncertain, as large-scale ascent should be weaker farther south.
Regardless, have maintained Marginal severe probabilities across
southern NY into northern NJ with a favorable environment forecast.

...Southeast into the Carolinas and Virginia...
A very moist low-level airmass will likely exist across these
regions on Thursday ahead of a cold front. Surface dewpoints should
generally be in the low to mid 70s, and robust diurnal heating of
this airmass should foster the development of strong instability
through the day. Mid-level winds on the southern extent of an upper
trough are forecast to remain fairly weak. But, modest (15-25 kt) of
mid-level flow may promote some convective organization. Although
details remain unclear regarding convective evolution, multiple
clusters of thunderstorms should develop along/ahead of the front by
Thursday afternoon, and spread east-southeastward through the early
evening. With a very favorable thermodynamic environment expected,
along with steepened low-level lapse rates, isolated to scattered
damaging winds may occur with the strongest convection. Have
expanded the Slight Risk from MS/AL into more of north/central GA,
SC, and central NC, where there is a better signal in various model
guidance for robust convection.

..Gleason.. 07/20/2022