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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated tornado threat will continue tonight across parts of the
Mid Atlantic. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect parts of
Utah and Arizona.

...Mid Atlantic...
Tropical Depression Debby will continue to move northward across
west-central North Carolina this evening and into southern Virginia
tonight. The main rainband associated with Debby is located from
western and northern Virginia into Maryland. Corridors with more
discrete convection are located across southern Virginia and eastern
North Carolina. These three convective areas are located to the
north and east of Debby's center, where the RAP suggests that 850 mb
flow is generally in the 40 to 50 knot range. The WSR-88D VWP at
Richmond, Virginia is sampling the stronger flow, with about 50
knots at 2 km. This is contributing to 0-3 km storm-relative
helicity of 450 to 500 m2/s2, which will continue to support a
tornado threat with the discrete or semi-discrete storms that
develop within this strong low-level flow. The potential for
tornadoes could continue into the late evening or early overnight
period, as Debby moves into southern Virginia.

...Desert Southwest...
Scattered to widely scattered monsoon thunderstorms are ongoing
across much of the Desert Southwest early this evening. Surface
dewpoints across west-central Arizona and southern Utah are in the
50s and lower 60 F, which is contributing to weak instability. In
spite of this, low-level lapse rates are still steep in some areas.
This is evident on RAP forecast soundings, which maintain 0-3 km
lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range across some of the region
through mid to late evening. For this reason, a few of the stronger
storms could produce marginally severe wind gusts.

..Broyles.. 08/09/2024