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Mesoscale Discussion 1520
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0711 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2022

Areas affected...southern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 200011Z - 200215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with a
high-based cluster of storms moving westward. Organization is
expected to be minimal and a weather watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Over the last 60 min,several clusters of high-based
thunderstorms have shown modest organization as surface cold pools
have merged and propagated west/southwestward this evening. Driven
by strong heating, seasonably high monsoon moisture, and enhanced
easterly flow beneath the large Four Corners ridge, continued
westward propagation is expected through this evening. Likely rooted
near 3 km from area averaged model soundings, dry low-level inverted
V structures beneath these storms will continue to support strong
downdrafts/cold pools capable of isolated damaging wind gusts.
Modest vertical shear (generally less than 25kt) suggests
organization potential is limited to cold pool forcing and along the
southern border where flow is strongest. As such, the risk for
damaging wind gusts should remain relatively isolated and a weather
watch is not expected.

..Lyons/Thompson.. 07/20/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   31461148 32201131 32771127 33241145 33821165 34311132
            34511088 34361032 33800973 33170938 32640914 32160899
            31650892 31260902 31231092 31271120 31461148