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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...CENTRAL
MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF NEW JERSEY...ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND...

...SUMMARY...
There may be at least some continuing risk for tornadoes in advance
of the remnant low of Debby, spreading across the northern Mid
Atlantic region on Friday.

...Synopsis...
Models indicate that an initially prominent higher-latitude ridge
will generally be maintained through this period, with its mid-level
height center perhaps slowly shifting east of the Canadian Northwest
Territories.  Some eastward redevelopment of a significant low
evolving to its southeast may also co*mence, as a couple of embedded
perturbations pivot around its circulation center near the upper
Great Lakes region.  This may be acco*panied by modest secondary
surface cyclogenesis, along an occluding surface front across the
lower Great Lakes into upper St. Lawrence Valley vicinity, with a
trailing cold front advancing through the remainder of the Ohio
Valley, into and across the Appalachians.  Through the day, Debby's
remnant circulation, forecast to weaken to a depression by 12Z
Friday and a remnant low by early Friday evening, appears likely to
continue a gradual north-northeastward acceleration ahead of the
front, to the lee of the Blue Ridge, before continuing toward the
Catskill/lower Hudson Valley vicinity Friday night. 

...Northern Mid Atlantic...
Despite the weakening trends to Debby, models suggest that the
evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and
appreciable boundary-layer buoyancy may be maintained into at least
Friday afternoon, focused in a sector to the northeast of the
accelerating surface low.  It appears that this may be in the
process of overspreading the Chesapeake/Delmarva vicinity as daytime
heating contributes to boundary-layer destabilization, before
spreading northward through the northern Mid Atlantic in advance of
the more inhibiting mid-level warm core.  Within this environment,
the evolution of a few supercell structures posing a risk for
tornadoes appears possible, before this threat wanes with the loss
of daytime heating Friday evening.

..Kerr.. 08/07/2024