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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY...AND PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong storms will be possible from eastern Wyoming and
Colorado into parts of the central Plains late this afternoon and
evening, with more isolated activity into the northern Plains. A few
strong thunderstorms in association with Tropical Storm Debby may
impact parts of the coastal Carolinas through tonight.

...Synopsis...

An upper cyclone centered over the Canadian Prairies and its
attendant trough will develop south/southeast over the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest today. A belt of enhanced midlevel westerly
flow will overspread the region as far south as NE/KS. At the
surface, an elongated low will extend from western Ontario into the
eastern Dakotas by midday, and over the upper Great Lakes/MS Valley
by Thursday morning. A trailing cold front will develop
east/southeast across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest
through the period. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Debby will persist
near coastal South Carolina. 

...Southeast WY/Northeast CO into NE/KS and Southeast SD...

Southerly low-level flow will allow 60s F dewpoints to stream
northward ahead of the cold front. Heating and steepening lapse
rates will allow for a corridor of modest instability near the front
by mid/late afternoon from northern/central NE into southeast SD.
Isolated cells are expected to develop near the front, though may
remain somewhat elevated. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear and
elongated/straight hodographs amid modestly steep midlevel lapse
rates suggests isolated large hail will be possible. Strong gusts
also may acco*pany these cells.

Additional convection is expected to develop in the post-frontal
upslope regime across southeast WY into northeast CO and shift east
across northwest/north-central KS and NE. This activity also may
pose an isolated hail risk in addition to localized strong gusts if
forward propagating clusters can beco*e established. 

...c*astal Carolinas...

Low-level vertical shear will remain enhanced and favorable for
low-level rotation. Low-level instability will mostly be attributed
to surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F, but will likely remain on the
weak side given limited heating and poor lapse rates. Nevertheless,
a low-end tornado risk may persist with any stronger cells moving
onshore.

..Leitman/Thornton.. 08/07/2024