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Mesoscale Discussion 1849
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Areas affected...Central and Southern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 062044Z - 062245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some severe thunderstorms will be possible across central
and southern Arizona this afternoon and evening, capable of
primarily damaging straight-line winds. Watch issuance remains
uncertain at this time, given uncertainty in future convective
development and organization.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed over the Mogollon Rim in
Arizona, where daytime heating has resulted in surface temperatures
in the mid-to-upper 90s F at the top of the rim, and low-to-mid 100s
F down in the lower desert. Deep inverted-v boundary-layer profiles
and generally weak flow aloft will support damaging wind gusts from
thunderstorm outflow. 

Current upper-air analyses and water vapor satellite trends suggest
a belt of modest 20-25 kt easterly flow beginning to overspread
central and southern Arizona, which could aid in convective
organization and an increased severe threat. However, given
convection has yet to move off of the Mogollon Rim, there is
significant uncertainty in the magnitude of convective organization
that can be expected.

..Halbert/Lyons/Hart.. 08/06/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON   34571408 35221360 35641309 35661222 35491175 35111146
            34761117 34471106 33991112 33471121 32981154 32461199
            32241278 32331359 32471371 32911401 33421416 33851421
            34571408