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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MONTANA...WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA...THE CAROLINAS...AND ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, hail, and isolated
tornadoes will continue across northern Ohio into New Jersey this
afternoon and evening.  Others areas of concern include much of
Montana into western South Dakota, the coastal Carolinas, and across
parts of Arizona.

...20z Update...
Minimal changes have been made to the current outlook to adjust for
ongoing thunderstorms. Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms
are ongoing over parts of the Upper OH valley and Great Lakes.
Additional development is expected farther west this afternoon and
evening with a risk for some upscale growth. The risk for damaging
winds and a couple of tornadoes continues.

Across the Carolinas, spiral bands associated with TS Debby will
continue to mover inland as the central low drifts east/northeast.
Minor clearing has been noted in the precip shield allowing for weak
heating in between the better defined bands. Occasional stronger
convective cells developing over the Atlantic will remain capable of
a couple tornadoes as they move inland into relatively strong
low-level shear near the NC/SC border.

Thunderstorm developing off the higher terrain in central AZ will be
capable of gusty winds and small hail as they move west/southwest
later this afternoon. The Marginal area was shifted slightly north
to better enco*pass some of the initial storm development. Otherwise
the previous forecast areas remain largely unchanged, see the prior
discussion for more information.

..Lyons.. 08/06/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024/

...OH to NJ...
Recent water vapor loop shows a well-defined and fast-moving
shortwave trough over Lower MI.  This feature will track eastward
across parts of OH/PA/NY today, along a corridor of strong
heating/destabilization.  This will lead to multiple clusters of
intense convection capable of damaging winds, large hail.  Winds
aloft are seasonably strong, but low-level winds are relatively
weak.  Some increase in low-level winds/shear may occur later today,
posing some risk of isolated tornadoes as well.

...MT/WY/SD...
Multiple minor shortwave troughs will rotate through the top of the
ridge over MT/WY today, while mid-level winds strengthen.  A plume
of mid-level moisture/lift ahead of these features will lead to
scattered thunderstorms over the mountains of western MT by mid
afternoon.  This activity will spread into the adjacent Plains and
intensify.  Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer shear to
support supercell storm structures capable of large hail and
damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and evening.  

...AZ...
A weak upper low is present this morning over northern Mexico
tracking slowly westward.  Enhanced easterly mid level winds around
the northern periphery of the low are spreading westward across AZ
today.  A few clusters of thunderstorms are likely to form over the
mountains of eastern AZ and propagate westward through the evening
into the lower deserts.  This pattern appears favorable for a more
organized damaging wind event across parts of AZ, although the
details of thunderstorm coverage/intensity over the higher terrain
of eastern AZ will help dictate the overall threat later today.

...Carolinas...
TS Debby remains over southeast GA, with bands of offshore
thunderstorms tracking inland along the coasts of SC/southeast NC. 
Sufficient low-level shear will remain in place through the
afternoon and evening for a risk of transient mesocyclones and a few
tornadoes through the forecast period.