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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong storms will be possible from eastern Wyoming and
Colorado into parts of the central Plains late Wednesday afternoon
and evening, with more isolated activity into the northern Plains. A
few strong thunderstorms in association with Tropical Storm Debby
may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
Moderate west/northwest winds aloft will extend from the northern
Rockies across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley on Wednesday
as an upper rough over SK/MB drops southward toward the US/CN border
into Thursday morning. Through 00Z, the strongest cooling aloft will
extend into MT and ND, with 40+ kt 500 mb winds as far south as
northern NE and IA.

At the surface, low pressure will generally stretch from the ND/MN
border into central NE and toward eastern CO/western KS through late
afternoon, with a surface high from the upper Great Lakes to the
lower MO Valley limiting moisture return. However, a narrow plume of
60s F dewpoints should develop ahead of the front across KS, NE, and
the Dakotas, aiding destabilization.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Debby is forecast to linger near the SC
Coast, with persistent heavy rain threat along with a low-end risk
of a tornado as low-level shear remains favorable.

...Central and northern Plains...
Strong heating will yield steep low-level lapse rates along the
Front Range and extending east/northeast ahead of the cold front
into western NE and nosing into SD. This will result in an unstable
and uncapped air mass near the front, where convergence will support
storms forming after 20Z from southeast WY into north-central CO,
and toward 00Z into SD. The high-based activity over WY and CO will
favor locally strong wind gusts, and these storms may persist
through the evening into across southern NE and northern KS with
wind potential.  Farther north, deep-layer shear will may favor
isolated cells capable of marginal hail, but midlevel lapse rates
look to be poor.

...c*astal Carolinas...
Per NHC guidance, Tropical Storm Debby is forecast to be just off
the SC Coast for much of the day, moving onshore early Thursday.
Dewpoints over the coastal counties north and east of the center of
circulation are forecast to remain in the upper 70s F, which may
yield sufficient instability for embedded severe cells within banded
convection. As such, will maintain low tornado probabilities for any
stronger embedded cells.

..Jewell.. 08/06/2024