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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM EASTERN OHIO ACROSS MUCH OF PENNSYLVANIA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND
ACROSS PARTS OF ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, hail, and isolated
tornadoes will affect areas from northern Ohio into New Jersey
today.  Others areas of concerns include much of Montana into
western South Dakota, the coastal Carolinas, and across parts of
Arizona.

...OH to NJ...
Recent water vapor loop shows a well-defined and fast-moving
shortwave trough over Lower MI.  This feature will track eastward
across parts of OH/PA/NY today, along a corridor of strong
heating/destabilization.  This will lead to multiple clusters of
intense convection capable of damaging winds, large hail.  Winds
aloft are seasonably strong, but low-level winds are relatively
weak.  Some increase in low-level winds/shear may occur later today,
posing some risk of isolated tornadoes as well.

...MT/WY/SD...
Multiple minor shortwave troughs will rotate through the top of the
ridge over MT/WY today, while mid-level winds strengthen.  A plume
of mid-level moisture/lift ahead of these features will lead to
scattered thunderstorms over the mountains of western MT by mid
afternoon.  This activity will spread into the adjacent Plains and
intensify.  Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer shear to
support supercell storm structures capable of large hail and
damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and evening.  

...AZ...
A weak upper low is present this morning over northern Mexico
tracking slowly westward.  Enhanced easterly mid level winds around
the northern periphery of the low are spreading westward across AZ
today.  A few clusters of thunderstorms are likely to form over the
mountains of eastern AZ and propagate westward through the evening
into the lower deserts.  This pattern appears favorable for a more
organized damaging wind event across parts of AZ, although the
details of thunderstorm coverage/intensity over the higher terrain
of eastern AZ will help dictate the overall threat later today.

...Carolinas...
TS Debby remains over southeast GA, with bands of offshore
thunderstorms tracking inland along the coasts of SC/southeast NC. 
Sufficient low-level shear will remain in place through the
afternoon and evening for a risk of transient mesocyclones and a few
tornadoes through the forecast period.

..Hart/Halbert/Lyons.. 08/06/2024