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Mesoscale Discussion 1840
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Areas affected...Southern lower MI into extreme northern
IN/northwest OH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 061131Z - 061330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The severe-thunderstorm threat may increase with time this
morning.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived storm cluster that produced a couple of
small bowing segments earlier this morning has evolved into a pair
of semi-discrete storms over southern Lake Michigan, with some
midlevel rotation and supercell characteristics noted over the last
30-60 minutes. Persistent low-level warm advection and ascent
attendant to the convectively enhanced shortwave trough moving
across the Great Lakes will support maintenance of these storms
through the morning. MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and favorable effective
shear (generally greater than 40 kt) will continue to support
organized storm structures. 

The ongoing storms are likely somewhat elevated, which renders the
short-term severe threat uncertain. Locally damaging gusts could
acco*pany these storms as they move into southwest lower MI, along
with some nonzero hail potential. With favorable low-level shear/SRH
in place, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out later this morning
along the southern portion of the storm cluster, especially if any
notable diurnal heating/destabilization can occur near an
outflow-reinforced front. While the short-term threat may remain
rather marginal and isolated, watch issuance will beco*e possible if
any uptick in storm organization and intensity is noted through mid
morning.

..Dean/Edwards.. 08/06/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   42788621 42628367 42578277 42138300 41538333 41188353
            41198409 41268463 41448560 41758651 42788621