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Mesoscale Discussion 1838
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Areas affected...Southeast WI...far northeast IL...southwest lower
MI...southern Lake Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 060726Z - 060930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/damaging gusts remain possible early this
morning.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived storm cluster is currently moving across
southeast WI, with a recent history of localized wind gusts in the
40-45 kt range. While this cluster has weakened somewhat as it has
moved into a less unstable environment, a notable pressure
perturbation persists, as noted by a relatively sharp pressure
rise/fall couplet and earlier easterly 46 kt gust at KMSN. 

This cluster may persist overnight as it moves east-southeastward
along a low-level baroclinic zone, aided by a rather strong
nocturnal low-level jet. While substantial low-level stability will
tend to limit a more widespread severe threat, isolated
strong/damaging gusts remain possible early this morning, especially
if the ongoing cluster can propagate into a somewhat more moist and
unstable environment across southwest lower MI.

..Dean/Edwards.. 08/06/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...

LAT...LON   42268890 42968876 43178823 43138706 43028626 42778562
            42488564 42258564 41878607 42088743 42268890