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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OHIO
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong storms are likely over much of Montana, and from
parts of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. A few severe wind gusts are
expected over southern Arizona, while tropical storm Debby affects
parts of the Southeast.

..MT into western SD...
Moderate westerly flow aloft will exist north of the upper ridge,
which will remain centered over the Four Corners states. A wave
moving across ID and into MT will flatten the ridge late in the day
coincident with peak heating, resulting in very steep lapse rates
and increasing deep-layer shear. 

Scattered storms are forecast to develop over western MT by 21Z,
extending as far south as Yellowstone. These cells will quickly move
east, producing both strong to severe gusts and hail. Some of the
hail may exceed 1" diameter given favorably long hodographs and
cooling temperatures aloft. Cells are then forecast to evolve
southeastward into northern/eastern WY and perhaps toward the Black
Hills late where instability may remain sufficient through early
evening.

...IN/OH/PA...
A prominent east-west front will stretch from northern IL to the
southern border of Lower MI toward Lake Erie by midday, with a moist
and unstable air mass to the south. A weak shortwave trough will
move toward the area out of the northwest, with winds aloft
primarily parallel to the frontal zone. A plume of theta-e will
spread eastward ahead of this front as well, into much of PA during
the day. Elevated storms are possible north of the front into Lower
MI, with a gradual expansion of surface-based development after 20Z
from northern IN across northern OH. Clusters of storms may produce
locally damaging gusts as they spread east/southeastward through
early evening. Other isolated cells will be possible farther east
into PA, aided by warm advection out of the southwest. Some of these
cells could produce isolated hail.

...Central and southern AZ...
Ample moisture will remain in place on Tuesday to support scattered
afternoon storms developing over the higher terrain with PWAT values
near 1.50" in the lower elevations.  Easterly midlevel winds around
the upper high should aid westward motions with strong wind gusts
likely into much of central/southern AZ coincident with peak
heating.

...c*astal SC and vicinity...
Per NHC guidance, Tropical Storm Debby is expected to move from far
southeast GA to just offshore the SC Coast on Tuesday. While
substantial rain fall will be the primary concern, will maintain low
2% tornado probabilities due to enhanced shear/SRH coincident with
possible upper 70s F dewpoints along the coastal counties.

..Jewell.. 08/05/2024