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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Valid 041700Z - 051200Z

...Update...
Latest observational trends in satellite data, co*bined with recent
CAMs and other model output, suggest the most likely area for
isolated dry thunderstorm coverage will be shifted southeast from
the previous forecast across portions of central UT, southern WY,
and western CO, with a small area of additional elevated, dry
thunderstorms possible near and east/northeast of the Cascades of
OR. These areas will have relatively lower PWATs and drier boundary
layer conditions this afternoon. Further north across MT and the
rest of WY, wetting thunderstorms are anticipated within an area of
stronger mid-level ascent and deeper moisture. In addition, very few
thunderstorms are now expected to develop over ID on the backside of
an exiting vorticity maximum, and as a result, dry Thunderstorms
have been removed from the forecast there. For additional details
pertaining to the unchanged Elevated area for windy and dry
conditions this afternoon across the High Plains of WY, SD, and NE
please see the previous discussion below.

..Barnes.. 08/04/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024/

...Synopsis...
...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms...
A midlevel disturbance moving across the Great Basin into the
northern Rockies will bring isolated dry thunderstorm chances across
eastern Oregon into Idaho southward and eastward into Utah and
Wyoming this afternoon. In these regions, mid-level moisture will
overlap dry surface conditions with faster storm motions. With
little to no precipitation expected, dry fuels within these regions
will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow
will also be possible. Better potential for wetting rainfall into
central/northern Montana precludes the need to include these areas,
though fuels in these regions are also sufficiently dry.

...Windy/Dry...
A surface low will deepen across eastern MT/WY this afternoon.
Surface winds will increase across these regions into western
Nebraska and southern South Dakota amid relative humidity reductions
to 15-20 percent. Some portions of the Nebraska Panhandle received
wetting rainfall in the last 24 hours, though heavier totals were
more sparse. Given ERCs near the 95th percentile before this light
to moderate rainfall, fuels may still be receptive to fire spread
with Elevated fire weather conditions expected.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...