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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are expected across parts of Florida and
southeastern Georgia in conjunction with the approach of tropical
system Debby.  Elsewhere, strong/isolated severe storms capable of
producing hail and/or damaging wind gusts will be possible across
parts of the Northeast/New England, the northern High Plains, and
parts of the Upper Midwest area.

...Florida/southern Georgia...
Tropical Storm Debby is forecast to gradually strengthen over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico today, with latest forecasts from the
National Hurricane Center indicating that Debby will reach hurricane
strength early Monday morning, prior to making landfall over the Big
Bend region of Florida.  As the storm strengthens, increasingly
strong, clockwise-veering winds with height will yield low-level
shear favorable for supercells within convective bands. 
Correspondingly, a few tornadoes are expected, with the risk area
gradually shifting northward through the period in tandem with
Debby's advance.

...Southeastern Montana and vicinity...
A surface cold front extending northwest-to-southeast across the
northern High Plains region, and differential heating over the
higher terrain of southern Montana, should both provide a focus for
isolated afternoon storm development.  Given moderate mid-level
westerlies acco*panying a short-wave trough crossing Montana during
the afternoon/evening, shear will be sufficient for
organized/rotating updrafts.  A couple of the strongest storms will
likely be acco*panied by wind/hail exceeding severe levels, with
storms spreading eastward into portions of the western Dakotas
through the evening/overnight.

...Eastern South Dakota to southwestern Wisconsin...
Ahead of a weak vort max embedded within moderate west-northwesterly
flow, diurnal heating in the vicinity of a very slow-moving cold
front will yield ample airmass destabilization to support widely
scattered afternoon storms over the eastern South Dakota vicinity. 
With time, some upscale growth may occur -- aided by development of
an evening low-level jet, with a cluster of convection then
spreading eastward across parts of southern Minnesota and Iowa, and
eventually into southwestern Wisconsin.  The strongest storms within
the broader area of convection should prove capable of producing
gusty/locally damaging winds, and marginal hail, through the evening
and into the overnight hours.

...Parts of the Northeast/New England...
Near and south of a cool front sagging slowly southward across the
St. Lawrence Valley area toward northern New England, daytime
heating will support at least modest airmass destabilization.  This
co*bined with the gradual eastward advance of an upper short-wave
trough should result in conditions favorable for development of
scattered afternoon thunderstorms.  Shear sufficient for multicell
organization/clustering is anticipated, suggesting that a few of the
stronger storms may be capable of producing gusty winds and/or
marginally severe hail through mid evening.

..Goss/Thornton.. 08/04/2024