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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MAINE...SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...VERMONT AND NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEASTERN OHIO...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...NORTHEASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are possible Monday into Monday night
across parts of the Northeast, the Upper Midwest, and northern
Florida into southern Georgia.

...Synopsis...
Models indicate that mid/upper flow will remain amplified across the
northern mid-latitudes through this period, with an increasingly
prominent embedded high centered over the Canadian Northwest
Territories amd a persistent downstream low only slowly continuing
to migrate across northern Quebec.  In lower latitudes, another
prominent high is forecast to continue to build along an axis
extending from the southern Great Basin vicinity through the lower
Mississippi Valley.

Within the northwesterly to westerly flow between the Southwestern
high and the Canadian low, it still appears that one vigorous short
wave impulse will rapidly dig from northwestern Ontario through
northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes by 12Z Tuesday. 
Another more modest perturbation is forecast to dig east-southeast
of the northern Rockies into the Upper Midwest.  It appears that
this will be acco*panied by strengthening deep-layer mean flow and
shear along a southward advancing cold front across parts of the
Upper Midwest and southern portions of the Great Lakes region,
through New England, Monday into Monday night.  A segment of this
front may also surge southward through the mid to lower Missouri
Valley and central Great Plains, beneath the building mid-level
ridge.

Between the Southwestern ridge and another ridge over the
subtropical western Atlantic, a tropical cyclone is now forecast to
intensify into a hurricane prior to making landfall near the Florida
Big Bend vicinity early Monday, before migrating slowly inland
across northern Florida into adjacent southeastern Georgia by 12Z
Tuesday.

...Upper Midwest into New England...
Stronger potential instability will probably beco*e focused within a
narrow corridor along the front across parts of the Upper Midwest
into southern portions of the Great Lakes region, beneath a remnant
plume of warm, elevated mixed-layer air.  However, destabilization
is expected to beco*e sufficient to support vigorous thunderstorm
development near/just ahead of the front from the lee of the lower
Great Lakes into northern New England by Monday afternoon.  It
appears that this will coincide with strengthening of westerly flow
in the 850-500 mb layer on the order of 30-50+ kts, which probably
will beco*e supportive of organizing convective development through
late Monday afternoon and evening.  This may include a risk for
severe hail, before the risk for damaging wind gusts beco*es more
prominent as activity spreads east-southeastward.

While strengthening of flow may be a bit more modest across the
Upper Midwest, it probably will still be sufficient to support a
risk for organized severe thunderstorm development, given the
thermodynamic environment.  This may also include an evolving
cluster, aided by forcing for ascent associated with low-level warm
advection, downstream of the mid-level perturbation approaching from
the northern Rockies.

...Northern Florida into southern Georgia...
It still appears that the approaching tropical cyclone will probably
be acco*panied at least some risk for convection capable of
producing tornadoes.  Some modifications have been made to the
tornado probabilities, to account for the latest adjustments to the
official forecast track and intensity.

..Kerr.. 08/04/2024