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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0813 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW JERSEY
VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected to continue this evening over
parts of Minnesota and South Dakota.  Local severe risk may linger
for a couple more hours over parts East Coast states, across
portions of the Texas Panhandle vicinity, and parts of Utah.

...Discussion...
Severe threat has begun to wane across much of the U.S. with the
loss of diurnal heating.  The most substantial risk -- which may
last the remainder of the evening -- is ongoing across parts of
central and southern Minnesota.  Here, moderate mid-level
west-northwesterlies atop a low-level wind field that veers with
height is resulting in ample shear for organized storms.  This,
co*bined with a strongly unstable airmass (mixed-layer CAPE still
3000 to 4000 J/kg per RAP-based objective analysis) is supporting a
cluster of intense storms over central Minnesota, remaining capable
of producing very large hail, and damaging wind gusts.

Elsewhere, a loosely organized cluster of strong storms is moving
northeastward across southern New Jersey at this time, where local
severe risk will persist for a couple more hours.  A few strong
storms are also moving southwestward across the Texas Panhandle,
which may pose a risk for locally damaging winds through
mid-evening.

Finally, convection associated with the outer bands of developing
T.S. Debby will continue affecting portions of southern and western
Florida, where a brief tornado cannot be ruled out this
evening/overnight.

..Goss.. 08/04/2024