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Mesoscale Discussion 1806
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0423 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Areas affected...portions of the southern High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 032123Z - 032330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce
sporadic strong gusts around 50-65 mph and hail up to 1.25 inch
diameter into this evening.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
under the influence of a southward developing convectively enhanced
vorticity max over eastern CO/western KS.  While moisture is
limited, steep midlevel lapse rates are contributing to 1000-1500
J/kg MLCAPE. Aided by the vorticity max and vertically veering wind
profiles, effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will support
sporadic organized convection despite modest boundary-layer
moisture/instability. Modified 12z and forecast soundings indicated
a deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud
thermodynamic profiles. This will aid in development of strong
downdrafts and sporadic severe thunderstorm gusts. Furthermore,
elongated hodographs amid favorable vertical shear and steep lapse
rates suggests any longer-lived and well-organized cells may produce
hail to near 1.25 inch diameter. Given the modest thermodynamic
environment, a severe thunderstorm watch is not expected, but
sporadic strong to locally severe storms are possible into the
evening.

..Leitman/Smith.. 08/03/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36870392 37110369 37250308 37360230 37500126 37240069
            36660055 35920073 34940143 33870217 33750325 34070398
            35160420 36390398 36870392