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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FROM THE CAROLINAS PIEDMONT TO THE
DELAWARE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and
South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York.  Other
strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle and southwest
Florida.

...Eastern States...
A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today,
with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from
GA/Carolinas into New England.  Visible satellite imagery shows
mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb
into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F.  This will yield a
region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon
thunderstorm development.  Winds aloft will be stronger than
yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests
greater coverage of storms.  This should result in a more active
convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging
wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening.

...MN/SD...
Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain
steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in
the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN.  One
such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over
northern MN this morning.  This activity will likely increase in
coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very
moist/unstable air mass over central MN.  Supercells capable of very
large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat,
with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures.  It
is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will
extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this
time.

...TX Panhandle...
Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant
MCV over western KS.  This feature will drift southward this
afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over
southwest KS/southeast CO.  Storms will spread southward into the
evening across the OK/TX Panhandles.  12z CAM solutions are a bit
more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential
for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region.

...FL...
Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba.  As
this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula,
low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night.  This
would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with
convection in the outer bands of the system.

..Hart/Lyons.. 08/03/2024