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Mesoscale Discussion 1799
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0601 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Areas affected...portions of eastern maryland...Delaware...New
Jersey and southern New York into Connecticut.

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 590...

Valid 022301Z - 030000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 590
continues.

SUMMARY...The linear cluster of storms across the Mid Atlantic will
remain capable of damaging gusts before moving offshore this
evening. Additional storms over eastern MD and CT may also pose some
risk for damaging winds through the evening.

DISCUSSION...As of 23 UTC, regional radar imagery showed a line of
storms stretching from far southern NY into parts of the DelMarVA.
Periodic wind damage and a few severe gusts have been observed with
this line of storms over the past couple of hours. Moderate buoyancy
remains in place ahead of the line over the Atlantic Seaboard. While
shear remains fairly minimal, a well-developed cold pool (forward
speed of 20-25 mph) has allowed for continued propagation and
support of transient strong updrafts. Damaging gusts will remain
possible with the stronger cells along and ahead of the outflow
before it moves offshore over the next hour.

Farther north, the cold pool/storms may remain inland for more of
the evening over parts of southern NY/Long Island and western CT.
While temperatures are cooler than farther south, 70s F dewpoints
and 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE should remain sufficient for
maintenance of the squall line as it approaches from the southwest.
Isolated damaging gusts in the 45-60 mph range are possible as the
northern half of the line and its cold pool approach. Storms should
gradually weaken as the move farther east this evening and begin to
encounter increasing nocturnal inhibition.

Redevelopment along the southwestern flank of the initial line of
storms over eastern MD may also support some severe risk through the
evening hours over MD and DE. While confidence in storm organization
here, moderate buoyancy should continue to support storm development
with periodic stronger updrafts and water-loaded downdrafts capable
of damaging near-severe gusts.

..Lyons.. 08/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON   39457628 39957498 40497455 41107428 41637425 41907395
            41957362 42027329 42027285 42017263 41837240 41567235
            41367253 40697330 40497371 40017397 39657415 39147471
            38847500 38587516 38467559 38417584 38467623 38637634
            38737638 39067649 39457628