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Mesoscale Discussion 1794
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Areas affected...portions of the Southeast and southern Appalachians

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 021743Z - 021945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to occasional severe storms evolving
along previous outflow may pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts
this afternoon. Confidence in storm organization is low, and a WW is
not expected.

DISCUSSION...As of 1740 UTC, regional radar and visible imagery
showed several clusters of strong to occasional severe thunderstorms
evolving across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians.
Over the past 2 hours, these storms have intensified along previous
outflow boundaries across northern AL and a weak MCV over TN/VA/NC
from prior convection. Weak ascent ahead of a broad central US
trough should continue to support additional storm development
through this afternoon. Robust diurnal heating and dewpoints in the
70s F are supporting 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Vertical shear is not
particularly robust, generally less than 20 kt. However, some slight
mid-level enhancement has been noted on area VADs ahead of the MCV
across western NC and VA. Given the moderate buoyancy but limited
deep-layer shear, storm organization should be confined to stronger
pulse-type updrafts with microburst potential. Isolated strong to
occasionally severe gusts are possible with the more robust cores
through this afternoon. However, given the limited potential for
storm organization, confidence in the need for a WW is low.

..Lyons/Hart.. 08/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   34898172 34498319 34258420 33898580 33948655 34128683
            34388683 34808613 35178503 36458296 37468185 37358112
            36648051 35968066 35128127 34898172