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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2022

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR OHIO INTO
SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over the Ohio
Valley on Wednesday.  The primary severe risk will be damaging
gusts.

...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level low/trough over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan
will move east into western Quebec and weaken concurrently as a
mid-level ridge over the southeast weakens.  A mid-level anticyclone
will be centered over AZ.  In the low levels, a surface low over
northern MI will develop eastward into Ontario/Quebec during the
period as an attendant cold front pushes southeastward across the
Great Lakes.  

...OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms will probably be ongoing early
Wednesday morning over northern MI.  This activity will likely move
eastward into Ontario and Lake Huron during the morning.  Model
guidance varies regarding convective coverage along a cold front
from MI south-southwestward into the OH Valley.  However, a very
moist airmass, as indicated by the NAM/EC models (dewpoints in the
low-mid 70s), and strong heating will result in a weakly capped and
very unstable boundary layer by early afternoon (2500-3500 J/kg
MLCAPE) from IN into KY and western OH.  Scattered storms likely
evolving into a band are forecast with organized multicells and
possibly a few transient supercells.  Strong to severe gusts (55-65
mph) capable of wind damage will be the main threat.

...Southeast CO/northeast NM...
Steep lapse rates will again develop by mid afternoon in the
adjacent plains east of the Sangre de Cristos.  Modest westerly mid
to high-level flow will promote storms moving into the High Plains
by late afternoon.  Isolated severe gusts and perhaps marginally
severe hail are possible with the stronger storms.  

...OK-TX Red River Valley...
Both deterministic and convection-allowing model guidance indicate
that isolated thunderstorms may develop Wednesday afternoon.  A hot,
well-mixed boundary layer with large temperature-dewpoint spreads at
the surface, may result in localized severe gusts with the more
intense cores.

...ND...
A weak surface trough will move southeastward through ND during the
day in advance of a minor mid-level perturbation glancing the region
over southern Manitoba/Saskatchewan.  Strong heating will result in
very steep lapse rates by mid afternoon.  Strong westerly 500-mb
flow (40 kt) will aid in some storm organization despite weak
buoyancy (500 J/kg MLCAPE).  Isolated severe gusts are possible
during the afternoon into the early evening.

..Smith.. 07/19/2022