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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the
Southest into the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. A few
isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains/Upper
Midwest.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level jet max will traverse the southern periphery of a
slow-moving trough across the Ohio Valley and emerge across the
Carolinas and Mid Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. As this
occurs, a weak lee surface trough east of the Appalachians will
sharpen somewhat during the day Saturday. 

Farther west, a strong upper-level ridge across the western CONUS
will start to break down as a strong mid-level jet traverses the
Canadian Prairies. A cold front will move into the northern Plains
on Saturday and may focus a few isolated strong to severe storms. 

...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic...
A very moist airmass east of the Appalachians (low to mid 70s F
dewpoints) will result in moderate to strong instability by mid-day
Saturday across a large region from GA/AL to the Mid-Atlantic. Weak
height falls and a surface lee trough in an uncapped airmass should
lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Saturday afternoon
across a large portion of the eastern CONUS. The moderate to strong
instability and moist airmass will be sufficient for some isolated
strong to severe storm threat. However, a somewhat greater severe
weather threat is possible from northern South Carolina into central
Virginia where stronger mid-level flow may lead to a local region of
better storm organization.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop ahead of a
southward-moving cold front in the northern Plains as temperatures
warm well into the 90s. Some stronger mid-level flow may overspread
this cold front during the afternoon/evening and enhance the
deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are likely across Minnesota, closer
to the mid-level vorticity maximum with decreasing storm probability
with western extent as inhibition increases. At least isolated storm
development is expected where the best shear and instability
overlaps from northeast South Dakota and southeast North Dakota into
central Minnesota.

..Bentley.. 08/01/2024